We are so focused on the disruption aspect of the Red Sea attack that we are missing a critical element of these attacks. Low barriers to entry of warfare technology. The precision with which Houthis have leveraged technology to attack ships is the beginning of a new trend.

A handful or small group of rebels have forced maritime fleets of powerful nations into action. And the fact is, no matter how many warships they send, it can not guarantee a complete safe passage of ships. A decade ago, when the mode of attack was boats, the mere sight of a warship would dissuade rebels.

As I have mentioned in many of my posts, wars, and geopolitics will be increasingly influenced by technology now, and more so in the future. This also means that if access to technology gets commoditized, the influence of powerful militaries over weaker ones wanes. The gist is that the levers of geopolitics have changed.

The kind of battle Russia is fighting in Ukraine will soon be a thing of the past. As we have seen, that decision is not boding well for Russia. For those engaged in such wars, making explicit claims of winning a war will become more and more difficult. And most sensible countries (and even militant groups) understand that.

Technologies, like being able to destroy or disrupt using drones, are becoming more and more readily available. While that does not mean that the West can not deliver massive damage to Houthis, the fact is that the West will not get into a significant conflict directly. So, Houthis know that as long as they do not have to engage in person-to-person contact (land, air, or sea) warfare, they can keep leveraging the technology to disrupt the sea routes.

As technology proliferates more and more, this lack of fear will become more prominent. “Remote warfare” will not be the forte of only a few countries. Though few countries will always be more sophisticated than others. But that will not matter in short-term skirmishes.

But this phenomenon, which is developing because of the low barriers to technology entry, can be tackled with technology itself. It is not the sheer number of military assets (like the number of warships) that will matter, but how technologically sophisticated they are. A warship stationed and visible in the Red Sea might not dissuade rebels from attacking. A small ship with the technology to thwart the technology to deliver precision attacks will be dissuading, if taught to be” so by “experience”.